Nearest Neighbour Analysis
Compares today's AESO load and price profile to similar historical days from AESO data. Today's curve is built from the AESO Actual/Forecast (WMRQH) report, and candidate analogue days are chosen from historical hourly pool price and AIL based on a combined match of load shape and price shape.
- Today (Alberta):
- 2026-10-17
- Selected neighbour day:
- 2024-12-25
Today vs Selected Nearest Neighbour (HE 1–24)
For each hour ending (HE) this table compares today's best-known price (actual where published, otherwise forecast) and best-known AIL against the selected historical analogue day from AESO's hourly pool price & AIL history. The candidate nearest neighbours are ranked by similarity of both load and price profiles.
| HE | Today Price | NN Price | Δ Price | Today Load (AIL) | NN Load (AIL) | Δ Load |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HE 01 | $0A | $0 | +0 | 10,011 | 10,011 | +0 |
| HE 02 | $0A | $0 | +0 | 9,820 | 9,866 | -46 |
| HE 03 | $0A | $0 | +0 | 9,705 | 9,784 | -79 |
| HE 04 | $0A | $0 | +0 | 9,662 | 9,709 | -47 |
| HE 05 | $7A | $0 | +7 | 9,664 | 9,714 | -50 |
| HE 06 | $5A | $0 | +5 | 9,736 | 9,790 | -54 |
| HE 07 | $1A | $0 | +1 | 9,933 | 9,935 | -2 |
| HE 08 | $0A | $0 | +0 | 10,225 | 10,129 | +96 |
| HE 09 | $0A | $1 | -1 | 10,450 | 10,349 | +101 |
| HE 10 | $0A | $0 | -0 | 10,587 | 10,404 | +183 |
| HE 11 | $5F | $0 | +5 | 10,635 | 10,440 | +195 |
| HE 12 | $0F | $2 | -2 | 10,621 | 10,461 | +160 |
| HE 13 | $0F | $5 | -5 | 10,588 | 10,437 | +151 |
| HE 14 | — | $9 | — | 10,550 | 10,398 | +152 |
| HE 15 | — | $13 | — | 10,532 | 10,460 | +72 |
| HE 16 | — | $20 | — | 10,541 | 10,601 | -60 |
| HE 17 | — | $22 | — | 10,599 | 10,801 | -202 |
| HE 18 | — | $14 | — | 10,624 | 10,809 | -185 |
| HE 19 | — | $5 | — | 10,621 | 10,552 | +69 |
| HE 20 | — | $0 | — | 10,653 | 10,477 | +176 |
| HE 21 | — | $0 | — | 10,580 | 10,429 | +151 |
| HE 22 | — | $0 | — | 10,456 | 10,346 | +110 |
| HE 23 | — | $0 | — | 10,249 | 10,183 | +66 |
| HE 24 | — | $0 | — | 10,044 | 9,989 | +55 |
Data sources (no synthetic values): today's curve comes from the AESO Actual / Forecast (WMRQH) report, using actuals where published and forecasts elsewhere. Each candidate nearest-neighbour curve is selected from historical hourly pool price and AIL (e.g. the AESO "Hourly Metered Volumes and Pool Price and AIL" data you trimmed into your local history file), based on similarity of both load and price profiles.